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Distortions in Period TFR and Improvements on Its Adjustment
Guo Zhigang
Population Research 2012, 36 (
5
): 3-14.
Abstract
(
1911
)
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(1144KB)(
1393
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Tempo -adjustment TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney has resulted in extensive discussions and new trials for improvement in its measurement.This paper outlines the major theoretical debates pertaining to this method and the new achievements in improving the indicators ever since.This approach has been extended to period life expectancy and nuptiality rate.The paper briefly discusses the important findings by Yamaguchi and Beppu and their innovative solutions in adjusting period total fertility rate.In particular,the latest study by Bongaarts and Sobotka is reviewed in the paper,which proposed a demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility with a new indicator,tempo-and parity -adjusted total fertility.There was a paramount role of diminishing tempo and parity composition effects in explaining the recent rise in TFRs.This paper concludes with some comments on the improvement in period adjusted indicators and discusses the issues needed for further consideration.
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Cited: Baidu(
4
)
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Impacts of Floating Population on Current Fertility in China
Guo Zhigang
Population Research 2010, 34 (
1
): 19-29.
Abstract
(
1922
)
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(1722KB)(
1574
)
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Social change has been remarkably characterized by great waves of floating population under economic reform over the last three decades.However,it seems unclear how the floating population have had impacts on fertility.Based on data from the 2005 one percent population sampling survey,the obtained fertility rates of female floating population are much lower than those of their non-floating counterpart.Comparison of fertility between the two groups are carried out further by age pattern,by birth order,as well as by status of household registration.The paper concludes that floating movement do contribute to fertility decline.
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16
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A Preliminary Study of China’s Negative Population Growth Momentum in the 21st Century
Wang Feng, Guo Zhigang, Mao Zhuoyan
Population Research 2008, 32 (
6
): 7-17.
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(
1839
)
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(1061KB)(
2032
)
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China’s population is at a turning point.By calculating intrinsic rate of natural increase over 1950-2006,this paper shows that the intrinsic rate turned negative in as early as 1990 despite the positive natural increase rate of China’s population.China has been gaining negative population growth momentum as a result of low fertility over the past decade.Population simulations under different scenarios demonstrate major impact of the negative momentum on China’s future size and age structure of population.Policy implications are discussed.
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China’s Low Fertility and Its Determinants
Guo Zhigang
Population Research 2008, 32 (
4
): 1-12.
Abstract
(
1951
)
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(1730KB)(
2145
)
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Guo Zhigang
Population Research 2005, 29 (
1
): 80-83.
Abstract
(
1086
)
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(122KB)(
1038
)
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Further study on low fertility of China in the 1990s
Guo Zhigang
Population Research 2004, 28 (
4
): 16-24.
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(
1378
)
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(201KB)(
1140
)
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30
)
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Diversity of China’s Fertility Policy by Policy Fertility
Guo Zhigang, Zhang Erli, Gu Baochang, Wang Feng
Population Research 2003, 27 (
5
): 1-10.
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(
2701
)
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(231KB)(
4179
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Factors Affecting Living Arrangement of the Chinese Elderly Women
Guo Zhigang
Population Research 1996, 20 (
5
): 45-53.
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(
20067
)
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1012
)
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5
)
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Retesting the Role of the Number of Children in Family Support for the Elderly
Guo Zhigang, Zhang Kaidi
Population Research 1996, 20 (
2
): 7-15.
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(
1176
)
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(2682KB)(
1590
)
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Cited: Baidu(
43
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